Forex Insights-06-Jul-2018

The forex insights of major currency pairs are as follows:

  1. EUR/USD:

  2. The pair EUR/USD is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.1589.

  3. The euro came under pressure after Germany's interior minister offered to resign amid an escalating row over immigration policy, throwing into doubt the future of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition government.

  4. The euro had risen on Friday after European Union leaders reached a deal on migration, easing pressure on Merkel.

  5. The single currency was also pressured lower after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up trade tensions with the EU, claiming overnight that it treated the U.S. very badly and was “possibly as bad as China, just smaller”.

  6. DX- Dollar Index

  7. The dollar slumped against its rivals Friday, on mixed U.S. economic data showing the economy created more jobs than expected but wage growth undershot estimates.

  8. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.34% to 93.81.

  9. The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June, above forecasts for 200,000 new jobswhile the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4%.

  10. The Federal Reserve's view that a tighter labor market would lead to wage growth, increasing inflationary pressures, continues to be challenged as average hourly earnings grew slower-than-expected for the month.

  11. USD/CAD fell 0.33% to C$1.3090

  12. USD/JPY fell 0.14% to Y110.49, while USD/CHF fell 0.35% to 0.9898.

  13. EUR/USD rose 0.46% to $1.1744, while GBP/USD rose 0.34% to $1.3269.

  14. GBP/USD

  15. Sterling is trading up 0.35% at around 1.3270 against the US Dollar after the US unemployment rate picked up to 4.0% in June from 3.8% in the previous month and the wages missed the expectations by rising 2.7% y/y.

  16. The headline NFP saw 213K new jobs added in June, but the overall tone of the report was softer.

  17. Sterling was trading as high as 1.3280 on Thursday after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he sees the UK economy improving to justify for an earlier rate hike, but the refusal of Theresa May’s customs plan by the German Chancellor Merkel saw it falling to 1.3220.

  18. Despite the latest intense setbacks off the 2018 high, the medium to longer-term outlook for this major pair remains constructive. The pullback is viewed as nothing more than a healthy correction at this stage, with a higher low sought out ideally ahead of 1.3000 for the next major upside extension and bullish continuation.

  19. USD/JPY

  20. The USD/JPY is trading 0.10% lower at around 110.50after the US NFP saw 213K new jobs added in June, but unemployment picked up to 4.0% and wages increased less than expected.

  21. The ongoing trade war between the US and China heats up, with the first volley of US tariffs on Chinese, but has been largely priced in with little effect on the market.

  22. The 4 hours chart for the pair shows that it holds above horizontal moving averages, with technical indicators posting mild advances above their midlines.

  23. Short-term direction, however, will depend on the outcome of the report. The greenback can recover ground on a better-than-expected NFP headline, combined with also better-than-expected wage growth.

  24. In such scenario, the USD/JPY pair needs to advance beyond 111.00 to extend its advance up to 111.40, en route to the 111.80/90 region. Below 110.15, on the other hand, as a result of a disappointing report, the pair can fall down to 109.50.

  25. The major pair has put in a decent recovery out from 2018 low. However, overall, the medium-term picture still remains bearish and there is risk for another topside failure that leads to a drop back down below the current 2018 low around 104.60.

  26. AUD/USD

  27. The AUD/USD pair advanced to a fresh two-week high of 0.7445 after the mixed NFP report from the United States but struggled to stretch higher.

  28. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.7425, adding 0.5% on the day.

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